How Jats may influence 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections in Haryana

In Haryana, farmers mean Jats. The farmers’ protests, and the Centre’s response to them, have left a bad taste in the mouth of the primarily agricultural community.

In Short

• Jat community's political influence in Haryana could impact 2024 elections
• Farmers' protests and BJP's response have upset the agricultural community
• BJP and JJP face backlash and boycotts from farmers in Haryana

Recent political developments in Haryana hint that the dominant Jat community may influence the 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections to some extent. And Jats in Haryana appear to be at odds with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) right now.

In Haryana, farmers mean Jats. The farmers’ protests, and the Centre’s response to them, have left a bad taste in the mouth of the primarily agricultural community. They are apparently miffed with the BJP and Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) on minimum support price, among other demands.

CHALLENGES GALORE

Both BJP and JJP leaders are now facing a backlash from farmers, who are attacking them when they reach the villages for campaigning. In Sonepat, 24 villages under the Dahiya Khap boycotted the party. Similar boycotts also happened in Sirsa. In Fatehabad, BJP hopeful Dr Ashok Tanwar’s rallies have been swarmed by protesters carrying black flags. And on April 5, former deputy chief minister Dushyant Chautala was stopped from entering the Nara village in Hisar, a Jat stronghold.

Reservations are another thorny issue. The BJP-JJP split, heavy dependence on the backward class of voters, and allegations of ignoring the Jat leaders will further fuel the growing mistrust among the dominant Jat community against the saffron party, especially in rural Haryana. With the community unhappy, the BJP has been trying to make inroads at strategic local levels, trying to connect with local Jat leaders.

Professor Gurmeet Singh, a Chandigarh-based political analyst, says “The Jat community during the previous 10 years was deprived of the power which revolved around non-Jat politics, and is now eager to taste power.” Analysts also say that Jats may be eyeing Assembly elections more than the Lok Sabha.

The JJP's split with the BJP is also a hurdle for the saffron party, which now lacks a dominant partner influencing Jat voters. “Despite having ruled the state for 10 years (JJP in the second term), the BJP failed to remove the mistrust factor among the Jat community. It also failed to retain and placate its own Jat leaders,” says Haryana Congress spokesperson Kewal Dhingra.

Prominent Jat leaders like former BJP chief OP Dhankar and Captain Abhimanyu were ignored in the Lok Sabha elections. Another key leader, Chaudhary Birender Singh, quit the BJP to join the Congress recently.

JAT INFLUENCE

Jat leaders have dominated Haryana politics since the formation of the state in 1966 even though the community accounts for less than a third of the state’s population. The exact percentage is the subject of debate. Jats constitute around 26 to 28 per cent of the state’s population. Yet, they remain the most influential group.

According to an estimate, Jats have a strong presence in around 36 of the 90 Assembly seats and hold considerable influence in four of the 10 parliamentary constituencies. Of the 10 Lok Sabha tickets, two have been given to turncoats – Dr Ashok Tanwar, former Haryana Congress chief, and Naveen Jindal, former Congress MP.

According to CVoter Tracker in Haryana, 39.8 per cent of the Jat population voted for the Congress party in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, 42.4 per cent voted for the BJP, and the remaining voted for the JJP, the Indian National Lok Dal, and others. In the Assembly elections that followed, the Jat voting pattern was different. The JJP cornered 12.7 per cent of Jat votes while the Congress share was 38.7 per cent. The BJP received 33.7 per cent of Jat votes.

The BJP faces a formidable challenge to garner votes in the Jat belt. Jat voters were blamed for the BJP's poor performance in the 2019 Assembly elections, in which five of its six Jat candidates lost.

The BJP doesn’t have strong or influential Jat leaders. Its support has primarily come from non-Jats, including OBCs and other smaller communities in the state. In the last two Lok Sabha and Haryana Assembly elections, the party marginalised the Jat influence by wooing these communities.

The party, however, cannot afford to ignore the influential community even though a majority of its members dislike the BJP after the reservation riots in the state a few years ago in which about 30 members of the community were killed in police action and a large number of others were injured. The BJP may owe its success in the 2014 and 2019 elections — both the Lok Sabha and Haryana Assembly — to the Modi wave, but other factors also include the division in Jat votes.

JAT LEGACY

In 58 years of its existence, Haryana has been ruled by Jat chief ministers for 33. Non-Jat chief ministers include the state’s first and second heads, Bhagwat Dyal Sharma and Rao Birender Singh, who ruled for short periods. Bhajan Lal from the Bishnoi community, Manohar Lal Khattar, a Punjabi, and the current Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader were the only other non-Jat heads.

Three Jat families — those of Devi Lal, Bansi Lal, and Bhupinder Singh Hooda — have ruled the state for the longest period. While Devi Lal, a two-time CM, also served as a deputy prime minister during the Janata Dal regime, Bansi Lal served as defence and railways minister under former prime minister Indira Gandhi. Their hegemony over Jat politics was overshadowed by Bhupinder Singh Hooda, whose father Ranbir Singh Hooda was a member of the constituent Assembly. Hooda served as the chief minister for 10 years. He is again eyeing the top post in the state after the Assembly elections due later this year.

Yet another influential Jat family traces its ancestry to peasant leader Sir Chotu Ram. His grandson, Birender Singh, served as a Union minister. He is a Rajya Sabha member at present. His wife, Prem Lata Singh, is the MLA from Uchana, and his son Brijendra Singh is Lok Sabha MP from Hisar, who recently resigned from the BJP to join the Congress and is tipped to contest Lok Sabha elections from the state.

ADVANTAGE CONGRESS?

The 10-year-long spell of the Congress government under Bhupinder Singh Hooda consolidated the Jat vote even though the party was faction-ridden with several other Jat leaders attempting to carve out space for themselves. The knives are out again. Hooda has shown reluctance to contest the Lok Sabha elections and said he would prefer to lead the party in the Assembly elections. However, party members like Kumari Selja have openly asked top leaders like Hooda to contest the Lok Sabha elections.

Another senior Jat leader Birender Singh, Hooda’s rival, has opted out of the Lok Sabha elections and has instead backed his son Brijendra Singh, a former IAS officer, to contest the election.

Except for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Jats trusted the Congress and Indian National Lok Dal in Assembly elections. Congress owns a lion's share in the Jat belt followed by the INLD. With the INLD wrapped up in family feuds, Congress will be the major beneficiary from the Jat and anti-BJP vote swing.

The Congress is dominated by Jat leaders like Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Randeep Singh Surjewala, and Chaudhary Birender Singh. The latter's comeback is being cited as a shot in the arm for the Congress party, which has become stronger. Birender Singh was known as a Hooda opponent and enjoyed a clean image.

However, the biggest challenge for the party's high command will be to deal with factionalism as all these leaders belong to different factions.

DISCORD AND FACTIONS

The division in Jat votes is not confined to Congress alone. The INLD formed by former chief minister Om Parkash Chautala has split up. The party used to call itself as the true representative of Jats. Chautala’s two sons, Ajay and Abhay, have parted ways. Ajay, the elder of the two, has formed the Jannayak Janta Party. His son Dushyant Singh Chautala joined hands with the second Khattar government in 2019 to form a coalition government. The coalition ended when Dushyant parted ways with the government a few months before the elections.

The coming Lok Sabha elections followed by the Vidhan Sabha elections would again witness Jat votes being split between the Congress, the INLD, and the JJP, with the BJP attempting to make forays in some Jat-dominated constituencies in rural Haryana.

The internecine war in Congress and the Chautala family might provide some advantage to the BJP but will that be enough?

(Vipin Pubby is a Chandigarh-based journalist with more than four decades of experience)
Published By:
Ashutosh Acharya
Published On:
Apr 11, 2024