Betting markets see Biden’s re-election as likelier than a Trump win for first time in 6 months

President Joe Biden’s chances of winning this year’s race for the White House appear to keep improving.

Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics on Friday put Biden’s odds of re-election just ahead of presumptive 2024 Republican nominee Donald Trump’s prospects for the first time since late September — at 42.5% for Biden, compared with 42.0% for Trump.

Biden’s improved standing comes after the Arizona Supreme Court’s ruling on Tuesday that the state can enforce a near-total abortion ban was widely viewed as hurting Trump’s standing in that key swing state.

In addition, the former president’s criminal trial in a hush-money case is due to start Monday, and a recent Bloomberg News-Morning Consult poll found Biden has gained ground in seven swing states that are likely to decide November’s presidential election, with the Democratic incumbent ahead or tied in three.

On the other hand, a Wall Street Journal poll last week found Trump ahead in six out of those seven swing states and tied in the other, and Wednesday’s hotter-than-expected reading on inflation, which hammered U.S. stocks SPX DJIA COMP, was seen as hurting Biden’s re-election effort.

Investors and campaign watchers should expect volatility in the race during the months ahead, according to Ed Mills, a Washington policy analyst and managing director at Raymond James.

“Our view is this election is very likely to be close at the presidential level. There are going to be parts of this year where each candidate probably looks like they’re ahead,” Mills told MarketWatch in a recent interview. “It’s going to go back and forth throughout the course of the year.”

It’s worth remembering that betting markets got the 2022 midterm elections wrong and can be poor predictors for several reasons. Bettors can get caught up in narratives and be skewed by unreliable polls, one expert in political gambling and prediction markets told MarketWatch after the midterms.

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