2024 Masters odds: Surprising PGA picks, Sunday predictions from golf model that's nailed 10 majors

SportsLine's golf model ran 10,000 simulations of the final round of the Masters 2024 at Augusta National Golf Club

The top of the 2024 Masters leaderboard is full of intriguing storylines heading into Sunday. Leader Scottie Scheffler is looking for his second green jacket in three years and he leads the pack at 7 under. He's being chased by a pair of notable names looking for their first Masters win as Collin Morikawa (-6) and Max Homa (-5) are within two strokes. Masters debutant Ludvig Aberg (-4) and 12-time pro winner Bryson DeChambeau (-3) are also within four strokes of the lead. The Masters Round 4 tee times begin at 9:15 a.m. ET and the final group will get underway at 2:35 p.m. ET.

Scheffler is the -105 favorite (risk $105 to win $100) in the latest 2024 Masters odds for Sunday. Morikawa (+350), Homa (+550), Aberg (+1000), DeChambeau (+1800) and Xander Schauffele (+2500), who is five shots off the lead, are the only other golfers going off lower than +9000. Before locking in any 2024 Masters Sunday picks, be sure to see the 2024 Masters predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model predicted Scottie Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Jon Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

In addition, McClure's best bets included Nick Taylor (70-1) winning the 2023 RBC Canadian Open, Jason Day (17-1) winning outright at the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson and Rickie Fowler (14-1) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic. This same model has also nailed a whopping 10 majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that three rounds are in the books at the 2024 Masters, SportsLine simulated the final round 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2024 Masters leaderboard.

Top 2024 Masters predictions 

One surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 Masters: Homa, who enters Sunday in third place and with the third-lowest odds, barely finishes in the top five. He's a golfer to fade on Masters Sunday.

Homa's presence near the top of the leaderboard is largely thanks to his 67 on Friday. He's shot even par since that point and has lost ground on the leaderboard after being the co-leader through 36 holes. Homa will likely need to pick up at least a few strokes to be in contention on Sunday, and he's only shot better than 70 one time in the final round of his last five events. The model has found better values among the top 2024 Masters contenders. 

Another surprise: Aberg, a +1000 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Aberg, the runner-up for 2023 PGA Rookie of the Year, has been a force early in 2024. He has three top-10 finishes, including a runner-up performance at Pebble Beach. He's finished outside the top 30 just once all season.

History is working against him at Augusta since a debutant hasn't won the Masters since 1979. However, Aberg shook off a first-round 73 to go a combined 5 under on Friday and Saturday, putting him just three shots off the lead entering Sunday. His combined Round 2 and Round 3 scores were better than Scheffler, Homa and Bryson DeChambeau, so if he keeps that pace on Sunday, he'll have a shot at putting on the green jacket. See who else to pick here.

How to make 2024 Masters picks

The model is targeting multiple huge longshots who are set to make surprising runs, including one golfer who enters Round 4 several shots off the lead. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's Masters picks here.

So who will win the Masters 2024, and which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2024 Masters odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2024 Masters leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 10 golf majors, including last year's Masters and Open Championship.

2024 Masters odds, field

See full Masters 2024 picks, best bets and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler -105
Collin Morikawa +350
Max Homa +550
Ludvig Aberg +1000
Bryson DeChambeau +1800
Xander Schauffele +2500
Cameron Smith +9000
Nicolai Hojgaard +10000
Tommy Fleetwood +10000
Cameron Young +12500
Cam Davis +15000
Byeong Hun An +22500
Patrick Cantlay +27500
Matthew Fitzpatrick +75000
Patrick Reed +100000
Lucas Glover +100000
Adam Schenk +100000
Chris Kirk +200000
Matthieu Pavon +200000
Rory McIlroy +250000
Joaquin Niemann +250000